Spot market transactions fluctuated around 264,000 yuan/mt, with SHFE tin prices showing a high-level sideways pattern. [SMM Tin Futures Commentary]

Daily Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract (SN2506) for May 14, 2025

Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) fluctuated at highs. During the night session, it surged to 266,100 yuan/mt, driven by macro sentiment, before consolidating sideways. It closed at 265,770 yuan/mt during the daytime session, up 0.92% from the previous day, with a cumulative five-day gain of 1.74%. Open interest increased slightly to 31,500 lots, maintaining neutral market trading activity.

Bullish Factors: The US unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate for April unexpectedly fell to 2.3% (a more than four-year low). Coupled with signals from US Fed officials that "interest rate cuts are still possible this year," the US dollar index pulled back, boosting risk appetite in the metal market. The phased implementation of the China-US tariff agreement has led to marginal improvements in export demand expectations for electronics, new energy, and other sectors, supporting the risk premium of tin prices.

Risk Points: The US tariff policy on China's strategic industries (such as semiconductors) has not been fully lifted. The increase in terminal orders remains limited, and the market remains cautious in its bets on liquidity easing.

Sluggish Spot Trading: The transaction price of tin ingots fluctuated around 264,000 yuan/mt. Liquidity for high-priced resources was insufficient, with downstream players only making just-in-time procurement. Solder companies have stable orders but no significant increase. The electronics and home appliance industries have restrained restocking intentions due to tariff policy constraints.